Municipal issuance in 2026 remains on track for around $555bn despite an early-year lag. Tom Kozlik at Hilltop Securities notes his November forecast called for $555bn amid a wide range of estimates from low $500bn to over $640bn. "There are two big factors that really drive overall issuance" he says: economic growth fueling new-money deals and interest rates influencing refundings.

While monthly activity has trailed expectations slightly, ample time remains as higher-volume periods typically fall mid-to-late year. "We probably very well could see close to $555bn of issuance this year" Tom Kozlik concludes.

The outlook balances resilient demand drivers with rate sensitivity, positioning munis for steady issuance in a maturing cycle.

Source: Video - Muni Analyst Issuance Projections for 2026