The first year of a presidential cycle has historically delivered solid market performance, and current data reinforces optimism for December. Kim Inglis at Raymond James reviews 80 years of S&P 500 history: in the 12 instances where the index rose 5% or more through November's end, December finished positive every time, averaging about 2% gains.

"Every single time, December has ended up to be a positive month," she says. While history does not guarantee repetition, the pattern suggests momentum from a strong November often carries through year-end.

With markets winding down the year on a positive note, seasonal tailwinds and cycle norms provide a constructive backdrop. Investors should monitor whether 2026's first-year dynamics align with precedent or deviate amid other forces.

Source: Video - What Market History Suggests About December Performance