AI Is Not Dot Com Redux: Adoption, Productivity and Healthy Volatility
Kim Inglis at Raymond James argues that today’s AI wave is fundamentally different from the 1990s internet boom. Then, firms often listed with little revenue or business plans. Now, the leaders are established companies with diversified businesses. Inglis underscores the adoption gap: 97% of U.S. households have a computer today versus 51% at the dot com peak, and roughly 70% of the global population has internet access compared with 6% in the 1990s. Those adoption metrics support scale and utility rather than pure speculation.
She warns against sloppy labels. Not every tech firm is an AI firm, and many big tech names are diversified across hardware, advertising, devices and cloud services. Investors should separate true AI beneficiaries from companies that merely append the term to existing offerings.
Productivity is the clearest benefit. Inglis sees AI as a tool to solve labor supply constraints and boost efficiency across industries, from automation to decision support and health care workflows. That makes AI foundational rather than a narrow fad.
Volatility is part of the journey. Heavy spending, uneven execution and episodic correction are normal as capital chases transformative tech. Inglis points to past bouts of tech volatility and recent headlines on overspending as reminders that bumps are healthy. Her advice is practical: focus on quality, diversify tech exposure, and watch spending and adoption trends as the primary signals of durable winners.
On the macro view, Inglis is constructive. Near term, inflation looks set to peak and then ease, GDP growth may bottom then recover, and rate cuts would be supportive for risk assets. She notes that no bull market truly peaks without a surge in investor confidence, IPOs and M&A, and those surges are not yet evident. That absence argues for measured optimism rather than breathless extrapolation.